Trump's Belarus potash threat shows how much America relies on Canada

Summary

On Monday, Trump posted that the United States is working on a massive potash deal with Belarus, one of Russia's closest allies, at prices substantially less than what America pays Canada. The post followed Lukashenko's announcement that Belarus had resumed potash sales to the United States after sanctions were lifted. He also wants more than $40 million he says is stuck in American banks.

Potash is a fertilizer mineral, and the video says America imported roughly 13 million tons in 2025, nearly 90% from Canada, much of it mined in Saskatchewan. Belarus is landlocked, and Lithuania's Klaipeda port remains closed to its potash, so shipments must travel through Russia to the Arctic. Lukashenko has also said Belarus has not a single free ton left to sell.

The video reads the threat as a message aimed at Ottawa, which has so far stayed silent rather than counter-threatening. StoneX analyst Josh Lynville says America's real shortage is phosphate and nitrogen, not potash, and the war with Iran has blocked most Gulf shipments of those fertilizers. Against Prime Minister Mark Carney's push to deepen ties with Europe, the channel presents Canada's reliable supply as its strongest card.

Key points

• The United States imported roughly 13 million tons of potash in 2025, nearly 90% of it from Canada.
• Belarus shipped a little over 700,000 tons to the United States in 2021, according to United States Department of Agriculture data.
• Lithuania's Klaipeda port remains closed to Belarusian potash, pushing shipments onto a long route through Russia to the Arctic.
• Lukashenko wants more than $40 million he says is stuck in American banks, and says Belarus has "not a single free ton" to sell.
• StoneX analyst Josh Lynville says America's real shortage is phosphate and nitrogen, not potash.

Questions answered